EAST AFRICAN OPPOSITION POLITICAL PARTIES ARE PARTLY TO BLAME FOR INCREASED INSTABILITIES IN THE REGION.
This whole Subject has about 6 factors and I will be for purposes expounding then clearly like one who eats an elephant, take a piece by piece.
Unlike Rwanda and Tanzania where Democracy seems to have an upscale that limits Political activities Pre and Post Elections, Kenya, Uganda and South Sudan have in the past five years suffered the consequences of laying a democratic surface that open for everyone as it is required but does not necessitated a satisfaction in the process of pleasing and displaying the guarantee of freedoms. As an individual the Amin Control of Freedoms was the best though with Awkward appearance. “You have freedom of Speech but not the freedom after speech”.
Anyway let’s focus on our Number one factor. Focusing on East Africa, the three counties Uganda, Kenya and South Sudan have in the last 10years invested heavily in Political intelligence and crowd control which seems to be the survival of these and other states across the African continent which has increased Lapses in Covert and Overt Intelligence.
In the ears of a stranger this sounds as a rhetoric but to someone who has followed the geopolitics of the region, at least in the last one decade this echoes well with the events but to the lay Thinker it looks like weaknesses of Leaders, but let’s look at 6 fundamental Factors that has led to the Increase of the curve of Political Intelligence over Covert and Overt Intelligence on our Graph.
1. Globalization, Imperialism, Neocolonialism, Trade Organization, Multinationals, Humanitarian Agencies, Governance Institutions, International Universities, Human Rights Foundations all have different definitions but with one similar agenda of having control and visibility across the globe their seems to be one fully fledged Battlefield left which is Africa as Asia and The Middle East are upping there priorities towards Development hence monopolizing Politics while Africa is liberalizing it.
The above players to be in business, they must heavily invest in Instability, regime change and Liberalization of politics whereby that can only be achieved by investing in Opposition Political Parties against Existing Legitment Govt. Let’s dig a little deeper in relation to the Topic.
Riek Machar of South Sudan who is said to have been Empowered with Military Warfare Equipment that are compared to that of the state, with no evidence of his wealth as an individual, how does he sustain and access such Hi-Tech Equipment if he is not deeply rooted and sucking in these mega organizations?
Odinga of Kenya, has in the last 15years years been actively 24/7 investigating in Political activities aimed at causing unrest in the interest of outing elected leaders with a reason of dissatisfaction of Election Results.
Besigye Kiiza in Uganda has been a victim of circumstances. In the 2016 elections, European Union Envoys, American Ambassador, the French and UK envoy actively Participated in Campaigning and Funding The Oppositions Candidates, not until at later stage towards elections, they had failed to choose between Besigye and Mbabazi since they still beloved that both combined, they could deny Museveni the required percentage of 50+1 threshold.
These are just basic examples that can be easy for one add up together.
How does the above contribute to the decline of the curve of political intelligence over that of Covert and Overt intelligence?
Instead of focusing covert intelligence that is aimed at keeping the country from internal and External dishonest intruders, both Man and Equipment Machinery is borrowed mitigate the challenge of political unrest. Opposition benefits in loss of lives and crippled economy because they find Lapses of criticism and weakening the incumbent to whom evaluation at the end of the term will render him either a failure or weak to execute as promised.
Kenya has lost over 300 lives to terrorism case in Point is The Garrisa University Shooting and the West gate Bombing and shooting which left hundreds dead, injured and businesses in disarray.
But also we need to remember that around that time, Odinga and his allies were tickling the state over crowd mobilization on streets which diverted all the efforts of security forces towards Barring crowds from flooding on streets something that is not health for business and others traveling.
Now, when Political unrest is in the country, there is insecurity in the country and the state for it to remain stable and continuing, it must divert all its efforts towards solving the existing events which renders other sectors vulnerable.
No one can sit and watch as they are weakened and they don’t revert. The question would be, should the opposition sit and ignore positioning itself into strategies aimed at strengthening it? I would also say No. Again to Preempt being biased, the Question would be, What should Opposition do if it’s not to unrest the existing Govt?
Those demarcations can be only be drawn by Dialogues, monopolizing Politics, Limiting Freedoms, coming up with a National Consensus on matters of Politics and Hopefully Decentralization of strong power units that could result into Federal System which is Regional block basis, Now that seems not to be a discussion that can not be tolerated due to circumstances well known to players involved.
This will introduce you to my next article that will be “How Politicking won’t usher us to stability and how Opposition is a Passive participant”.
Herbert B. Anderson
Chairman Concerned Citizens.
